Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Brexit - who will benefit from it?

Let's tackle a hot issue of Britain wanting to bid a farewell to the EU in 2017. Will it be a good decision? Who will benefit from this decision and will the UK really save a lot of money then?

I'm not an expert at all but since it's a broadly discussed topic now, I thought I'd write something on it too :) Cameron, the UK PM seem sto be quite determined to hold the referendum even though some of his party members are not very fond of the idea.

Perhaps Cameron is right and his decision is far from that of a spoilt kid for he tried to renegotiate the conditions of his country's staying within the already falling apart EU. Or perhaps he is more intelligent than other politicians and he wants to leave this wobbling, seemingly united creature before it decays inside out.

Having heard from Tusk that the UK suggested conditions to stay in the EU were not likely to be implemented, Cameron might feel even more encouraged to go all they way and free his country from the fossilized, over bureaucratic and idealess pseudo union.

There are some pros and cons of Brexit. The ones I can point at, I will here. If the UK leaves the EU, it will deprive itself of EU set commercial contracts. It will have to start acting individually and the fact of not being an EU member may contribute to the country being perceived as less lucrative. At the same time the country will be subjected to all the changes taking place around the country but the UK will have nothing to say then.

What about the borders? Will the total cost of social benefits granted to all newcomers really be lower than all the GDP contribution made by outside labor that is both cheaper, often educated, and resourceful. If the UK closes its borders and block the inflow of cheap labor, will this affect the country's unemployment rates? Will Britons take up jobs that are now done by non-British workers? My feeling is that many Britons will decide to live on social benefits just the way many immigrants do today. The difference, however, will be that the state will still pay the cost of supporting the unemployed while SMEs will have nobody to work for them, which, as a result, will result in businesses closing down.

My other thought, however, is that the UK might win a lot thanks to its decision to leave the UK provided it's really creative and has good ideas to make the most of all the opportunities that will open up ahead of the country once it liberates itself from the EU chains. But if it doesn't have any good strategy, the country might find itself in a difficult situation and re-joining the EU could be quite hard then.

These are just very general thought of a layman. :)

And what's your opinion?

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